IRON measures macro pressure across rates, credit, FX, volatility and liquidity. ANCHOR evaluates whether those pressures are transmitting into structural stress or remaining contained. Together, they form the regime control layer of the framework — separating narrative noise from cross-asset confirmation.
This section houses the full data reports behind both systems. Unlike public summaries, these releases include complete indicator tables, transmission notes, pressure scoring, and structural alignment reads across asset classes. Each report documents what moved, where it moved, and whether the system absorbed or amplified the impulse.
The objective is simple: clarity over commentary. Every update is built to answer one question — is the regime stable, rotating, or deteriorating? These reports provide the underlying evidence so positioning decisions are grounded in structure rather than
IRONBORN REGIME ARCHIVE
Coverage: January 29 → February 28, 2026
Status: Continuous Record
Master Log (Chronological Flow)
Date | Market Temperature | RPI State | Rates (10Y) | Credit | USD | Volatility | Breadth | Structural Phase |
Jan 29 | HOT | Elevated | Rising | Widening | Firm | Rising | Weak | Escalation building |
Jan 30 | HOT (Bordering Unstable) | Elevated | Rising confirmed | Widening stress | Firm | Rising | Weak | Stress confirmed |
Feb 2 | HOT → FRACTURING | Stressed | Rising intensifying | Widening under surface | Firm | Dangerous calm | Distribution | Peak fracture risk |
Feb 3 | HOT → Stabilizing (Fragile) | Elevated easing | Firm | Stable | Slightly easing | Collapsing rapidly | Mechanical bounce | Fragile stabilization |
Feb 4 | HOT → UNSTABLE | Stressed active | ~4.27% sticky | Stable not expanding | USDJPY ~156 pressure | ~18 controlled | NDX heavy | Funding stress |
Feb 5 | Cooling → Unstable | Elevated stabilizing | Tight capped | Holding fragile | Structural | Active stress | Absorption | Rule recalibration |
Feb 6 | Warm → Fragile Stabilization | Elevated stabilizing | Not tightening | Holding support | Structural | Managed | Balance not breadth | Repair attempt |
Feb 9 | Stable-Hot (Cooling) | Tight stabilizing | Not easing | Stable | Partial relief | Compressed | No expansion | Relief without conviction |
Feb 10 | Stable → Cooling | Tight stabilizing | Flat/slightly lower | Stable | Mixed | Drifting lower | Narrow leadership | Absorption phase |
Feb 11 | Stable-Hot (Rotational bid) | Moderate easing | Stable | Stable | USD softer | Neutral | Balanced | Rotation emerging |
Feb 12 | Stable-Hot Cooling Continues | Elevated stabilizing | Not breaking lower | Stable | Stable | Controlled | Stabilizing | Orderly cooling |
Feb 13 | Stable-Hot (Pressure rising again) | Elevated tightening | Not breaking lower | Stable | Stable | Elevated | No expansion | Contained heat |
Feb 16 | Stable-Warm | Elevated orderly | ~4.05 stable | Stable | Mixed | ~21 elevated | Improving | R1 forming |
Feb 17 | Stable-Warm (Cooling pressure) | Elevated no unwind | Yields easing | Stable | Softer USD | Elevated | Stabilizing | Compression |
Feb 18 | R1 Confirmed | Elevated orderly | ~4.05 stable | LQD steady / HYG firm | Firm | Elevated contained | Improving | No transmission |
Feb 20 | Stable-Warm | Elevated controlled | ~4.10 stable | Steady | Firm | ~20–21 | Slightly soft | Controlled expansion |
Feb 22 | Stable-Warm (Weekend) | Elevated controlled | Stable | Stable | Firm | Elevated baseline | Neutral | Compression |
Feb 23 | Stable-Warm | Elevated controlled | ~4.08 stable | Stable | Firm | 19.09 | Mixed | Vol below 20 |
Feb 24 | Stable-Warm | Elevated baseline | ~4.03 stable | No widening impulse | Orderly | ~19.5 | Stable | Compression continues |
Feb 25 | Stable-Warm (Not accelerating) | Calm baseline | ~4.03 stable | Stable | USDJPY orderly | ~19.5 | Stable | R1 intact |
Feb 26 | Stable-Warm | Tight orderly | ~4.00 area drift lower | Stable | Firm orderly | High teens/low 20 | Mixed | No transmission |
Feb 27 | Stable-Warm → Firm Close | Contained | ~3.96–3.97 drift lower | No widening | Orderly | ~20 controlled | Rotation | Month-end absorption |
Feb 28 | Stable-Warm (Weekend Check) | Elevated orderly | ~4.00–4.05 stable | Stable | Orderly | Contained | Neutral | Compression holds |
🔎 What the Full 30-Day Flow Shows
Phase 1 — Escalation (Jan 29 → Feb 4)
Rising yields
Credit widening
Weak breadth
Funding pressure (USDJPY ~156)
Distribution confirmed
This was real structural stress.
Phase 2 — Repair (Feb 5 → Feb 10)
Credit stopped widening
Rates capped
Volatility collapsed from panic
Forced behavior faded
Stress cooled before rates eased.
That’s absorption.
Phase 3 — Rotation & Containment (Feb 11 → Feb 16)
Breadth improved
No credit impulse
No forced unwind
Rotation appeared
This is where R1 was born.
Phase 4 — Controlled Expansion (Feb 17 → Feb 28)
10Y stable ~4.05 drifting lower
Credit steady entire window
VIX ~19–21 baseline
No LOKI escalation beyond Stage 2
No transmission impulse
No secondary stress wave
The February fracture attempt failed.
📌 Official State — End of February
Regime: R1 — Controlled Expansion / Compression
Credit: Anchor holding entire month
Rates: Orderly, drifting lower from peak
Volatility: Elevated baseline, not expanding
Transmission Risk: Dormant
The system absorbed a tightening impulse and did not cascade.
That is the honest structural read of the last 30 days.
