IRON measures macro pressure across rates, credit, FX, volatility and liquidity. ANCHOR evaluates whether those pressures are transmitting into structural stress or remaining contained. Together, they form the regime control layer of the framework — separating narrative noise from cross-asset confirmation.
This section houses the full data reports behind both systems. Unlike public summaries, these releases include complete indicator tables, transmission notes, pressure scoring, and structural alignment reads across asset classes. Each report documents what moved, where it moved, and whether the system absorbed or amplified the impulse.
The objective is simple: clarity over commentary. Every update is built to answer one question — is the regime stable, rotating, or deteriorating? These reports provide the underlying evidence so positioning decisions are grounded in structure rather than
IRONBORN REGIME ARCHIVE
Coverage: January 29 → February 28, 2026
Status: Continuous Record
Master Log (Chronological Flow)
Date | Market Temperature | RPI State | Rates (10Y) | Credit | USD | Volatility | Breadth | Structural Phase |
Jan 29 | HOT | Elevated | Rising | Widening | Firm | Rising | Weak | Escalation building |
Jan 30 | HOT (Bordering Unstable) | Elevated | Rising confirmed | Widening stress | Firm | Rising | Weak | Stress confirmed |
Feb 2 | HOT → FRACTURING | Stressed | Rising intensifying | Widening under surface | Firm | Dangerous calm | Distribution | Peak fracture risk |
Feb 3 | HOT → Stabilizing (Fragile) | Elevated easing | Firm | Stable | Slightly easing | Collapsing rapidly | Mechanical bounce | Fragile stabilization |
Feb 4 | HOT → UNSTABLE | Stressed active | ~4.27% sticky | Stable not expanding | USDJPY ~156 pressure | ~18 controlled | NDX heavy | Funding stress |
Feb 5 | Cooling → Unstable | Elevated stabilizing | Tight capped | Holding fragile | Structural | Active stress | Absorption | Rule recalibration |
Feb 6 | Warm → Fragile Stabilization | Elevated stabilizing | Not tightening | Holding support | Structural | Managed | Balance not breadth | Repair attempt |
Feb 9 | Stable-Hot (Cooling) | Tight stabilizing | Not easing | Stable | Partial relief | Compressed | No expansion | Relief without conviction |
Feb 10 | Stable → Cooling | Tight stabilizing | Flat/slightly lower | Stable | Mixed | Drifting lower | Narrow leadership | Absorption phase |
Feb 11 | Stable-Hot (Rotational bid) | Moderate easing | Stable | Stable | USD softer | Neutral | Balanced | Rotation emerging |
Feb 12 | Stable-Hot Cooling Continues | Elevated stabilizing | Not breaking lower | Stable | Stable | Controlled | Stabilizing | Orderly cooling |
Feb 13 | Stable-Hot (Pressure rising again) | Elevated tightening | Not breaking lower | Stable | Stable | Elevated | No expansion | Contained heat |
Feb 16 | Stable-Warm | Elevated orderly | ~4.05 stable | Stable | Mixed | ~21 elevated | Improving | R1 forming |
Feb 17 | Stable-Warm (Cooling pressure) | Elevated no unwind | Yields easing | Stable | Softer USD | Elevated | Stabilizing | Compression |
Feb 18 | R1 Confirmed | Elevated orderly | ~4.05 stable | LQD steady / HYG firm | Firm | Elevated contained | Improving | No transmission |
Feb 20 | Stable-Warm | Elevated controlled | ~4.10 stable | Steady | Firm | ~20–21 | Slightly soft | Controlled expansion |
Feb 22 | Stable-Warm (Weekend) | Elevated controlled | Stable | Stable | Firm | Elevated baseline | Neutral | Compression |
Feb 23 | Stable-Warm | Elevated controlled | ~4.08 stable | Stable | Firm | 19.09 | Mixed | Vol below 20 |
Feb 24 | Stable-Warm | Elevated baseline | ~4.03 stable | No widening impulse | Orderly | ~19.5 | Stable | Compression continues |
Feb 25 | Stable-Warm (Not accelerating) | Calm baseline | ~4.03 stable | Stable | USDJPY orderly | ~19.5 | Stable | R1 intact |
Feb 26 | Stable-Warm | Tight orderly | ~4.00 area drift lower | Stable | Firm orderly | High teens/low 20 | Mixed | No transmission |
Feb 27 | Stable-Warm → Firm Close | Contained | ~3.96–3.97 drift lower | No widening | Orderly | ~20 controlled | Rotation | Month-end absorption |
Feb 28 | Stable-Warm (Weekend Check) | Elevated orderly | ~4.00–4.05 stable | Stable | Orderly | Contained | Neutral | Compression holds |
🔎 What the Full 30-Day Flow Shows
Phase 1 — Escalation (Jan 29 → Feb 4)
Rising yields
Credit widening
Weak breadth
Funding pressure (USDJPY ~156)
Distribution confirmed
This was real structural stress.
Phase 2 — Repair (Feb 5 → Feb 10)
Credit stopped widening
Rates capped
Volatility collapsed from panic
Forced behavior faded
Stress cooled before rates eased.
That’s absorption.
Phase 3 — Rotation & Containment (Feb 11 → Feb 16)
Breadth improved
No credit impulse
No forced unwind
Rotation appeared
This is where R1 was born.
Phase 4 — Controlled Expansion (Feb 17 → Feb 28)
10Y stable ~4.05 drifting lower
Credit steady entire window
VIX ~19–21 baseline
No LOKI escalation beyond Stage 2
No transmission impulse
No secondary stress wave
The February fracture attempt failed.
📌 Official State — End of February
Regime: R1 — Controlled Expansion / Compression
Credit: Anchor holding entire month
Rates: Orderly, drifting lower from peak
Volatility: Elevated baseline, not expanding
Transmission Risk: Dormant
The system absorbed a tightening impulse and did not cascade.
That is the honest structural read of the last 30 days.
Key confirmed readings from the Mar 13 close:
WTI: ~$98
Brent: ~$103
10Y: ~4.27
VIX: ~27
Breadth: Weakening (small caps lagging)
Credit: Still functioning (no widening impulse)
System state: tightening financial conditions but not systemic stress
🧭 IRONBORN REGIME ARCHIVE
Coverage: Jan 29 → Mar 13, 2026
📊 Master Log (Chronological)
Date | Market Temp | RPI | Rates (10Y) | Credit | USD | Vol | Breadth | Structural Phase |
Jan 29 | HOT | Elevated | Rising | Widening | Firm | Rising | Weak | Escalation building |
Jan 30 | HOT (Bordering Unstable) | Elevated | Rising confirmed | Widening stress | Firm | Rising | Weak | Stress confirmed |
Feb 2 | HOT → FRACTURING | Stressed | Rising intensifying | Widening under surface | Firm | Dangerous calm | Distribution | Peak fracture risk |
Feb 3 | HOT → Stabilizing | Elevated easing | Firm | Stable | Slightly easing | Vol collapse | Mechanical bounce | Fragile stabilization |
Feb 4 | HOT → UNSTABLE | Stressed | ~4.27 sticky | Stable | USDJPY ~156 | ~18 | NDX heavy | Funding stress |
Feb 5 | Cooling → Unstable | Elevated stabilizing | Tight capped | Holding fragile | Structural | Active stress | Absorption | Rule recalibration |
Feb 6 | Warm → Fragile Stabilization | Elevated stabilizing | Not tightening | Holding support | Structural | Managed | Balance not breadth | Repair phase |
Feb 9 | Stable-Hot | Tight stabilizing | Not easing | Stable | Partial relief | Compressed | Narrow | Relief phase |
Feb 10 | Stable → Cooling | Tight stabilizing | Flat/slightly lower | Stable | Mixed | Lower | Narrow | Absorption |
Feb 11 | Stable-Hot | Moderate easing | Stable | Stable | USD softer | Neutral | Balanced | Rotation |
Feb 12 | Stable-Hot | Elevated stabilizing | Not breaking lower | Stable | Stable | Controlled | Stabilizing | Cooling |
Feb 13 | Stable-Hot | Elevated tightening | Not breaking lower | Stable | Stable | Elevated | No expansion | Contained heat |
Feb 16 | Stable-Warm | Elevated orderly | ~4.05 | Stable | Mixed | ~21 | Improving | R1 forming |
Feb 17 | Stable-Warm | Elevated | Yields easing | Stable | Softer USD | Elevated | Stabilizing | Compression |
Feb 18 | R1 Confirmed | Elevated orderly | ~4.05 | Stable | Firm | Elevated | Improving | No transmission |
Feb 20 | Stable-Warm | Elevated controlled | ~4.10 | Stable | Firm | ~20–21 | Slightly soft | Controlled expansion |
Feb 23 | Stable-Warm | Elevated controlled | ~4.08 | Stable | Firm | 19 | Mixed | Vol below 20 |
Feb 24 | Stable-Warm | Elevated baseline | ~4.03 | Stable | Orderly | ~19.5 | Stable | Compression |
Feb 25 | Stable-Warm | Calm baseline | ~4.03 | Stable | USDJPY orderly | ~19.5 | Stable | R1 intact |
Feb 26 | Stable-Warm | Tight orderly | ~4.00 | Stable | Firm | ~20 | Mixed | Compression |
Feb 27 | Stable-Warm | Contained | ~3.97 | Stable | Orderly | ~20 | Rotation | Month-end absorption |
Feb 28 | Stable-Warm | Elevated orderly | ~4.02 | Stable | Orderly | ~20 | Neutral | Compression holds |
Mar 2 | Stable-Warm | Elevated baseline | ~4.12 | Stable | Firm | ~22 | Mixed | Pressure building |
Mar 3 | Warm | Tightening | ~4.15 | Stable | Firm | ~23 | Slightly weaker | Vol rising |
Mar 4 | Warm | Tightening | ~4.16 | Stable | Firm | ~23 | Mixed | Commodity pressure |
Mar 5 | Warm | Tightening | ~4.15 | Stable | Firm | ~23 | Mixed | Pressure building |
Mar 6 | Warm — Pressure Building | Tightening | ~4.15 | Stable | Stable | ~23 | Risk building | System intact |
Mar 7 | Warm | Tightening | ~4.14 | Stable | Firm | ~24 | Weakening | Stress rising |
Mar 8 | Warm → Elevated | Tightening | ~4.13 | Softening slightly | Firm | ~28 | Weak | Energy pressure |
Mar 9 | Stress Phase Emerging | Forced behavior risk | ~4.13 | Softening | Firm | ~34 spike | Weak | Energy shock |
Mar 10 | Warm → Elevated | Tightening | ~4.22 | Stable | Firm | ~30 | Weak | Energy + rates pressure |
Mar 11 | Warm | Tightening | ~4.24 | Stable | Firm | ~29 | Weak | Financial conditions tightening |
Mar 12 | Warm | Tightening | ~4.26 | Stable | Firm | ~28 | Weak | Cost pressure regime |
Mar 13 | Warm — Tightening Conditions | Elevated | ~4.27 | Credit functional | Firm | ~27 | Small caps weak | Energy-led tightening (no systemic break) |
🔎 Structural Interpretation (Mar 9 → Mar 13)
The March move was not a systemic fracture.
It was a cost-pressure repricing driven by energy + yields.
Key features:
Energy Shock
WTI moved toward $100
Brent >$100
Financial Conditions Tightened
10Y rose toward ~4.27
Volatility Elevated
VIX moved ~27–34
Breadth Deteriorated
Small caps and cyclicals weakened.
But the critical point:
Credit did not break.
LQD / HYG remained stable.
That prevented a systemic cascade.
📈 The Regime Flow (Last 6 Weeks)
Phase 1 — Escalation
Jan 29 → Feb 4
(rate shock)
Phase 2 — Repair
Feb 5 → Feb 10
Phase 3 — Controlled Expansion (R1)
Feb 16 → Feb 28
Phase 4 — Pressure Rebuild
Mar 2 → Mar 7
Phase 5 — Energy Shock Repricing
Mar 9 → Mar 13
But not systemic stress.
📌 Official State — Week Close (Mar 13)
Regime: Cost-Pressure Regime
Drivers:
Energy
Yields
System Status:
Tightening financial conditions
Elevated volatility
Weak breadth
Credit stable
Translation:
Markets are repricing costs —
not entering a liquidity crisis.
If you want, the next thing we can do with this dataset is actually very powerful:
Build the first Ironborn “Regime Transition Map.”
It would visually show exactly where the system shifted phases over the last 45 days. That would make this archive far easier to use going forward.
